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I have said from the beginning of this “not a war” that the decisive question was whether the American bombing campaign would translate into political and strategic gains. Could the American empire impose its will via aerial bombardment? Would it reopen the Strait of Hormuz (which was open before this disastrous military excursion) by force?
This war has consistently been sold in the West through spectacle: Trumpian theater, Zionist panic, and cable-news jingoism. We were told Iran was finished, its leaders gone, its military crippled. We were told that we would soon see its people rise up, its nuclear program erased, its proxies broken. Every claim was offered with the same juvenile certainty that has defined American foreign policy since Iraq: strike hard enough, posture loudly enough, invoke civilizational framing often enough, and reality will eventually submit.
The answer, now written plainly in the tenuous fourteen-point peace plan, is no.
It is nothing less than an inventory of American concessions, dressed in the language of de-escalation — a strategic capitulation. The empire has taken the field, fired its missiles, wasted its prestige, activated its evangelical war cult, subordinated itself yet again to Israel’s regional ambitions, and arrived at the negotiating table with even less than it claimed it already had before the first bombs ever fell.
The United States has agreed to terminate military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon (though this has quickly proved hollow.) It agrees not to initiate war or use force against Iran. It agrees to respect Iran’s sovereignty and refrain from interference. It agrees to remove the naval blockade within 30 days. It agrees to remove its forces from the proximity of Iran after the final deal. It agrees not to deploy additional forces or impose new sanctions during negotiations. It yet further agrees to sanctions relief and a reconstruction framework reportedly worth at least $300 billion — far larger sums than the oft maligned Obama era JCPOA.
Now, to be clear, this entire arrangement may be collapsing before our eyes as the United States and Iran are already trading fire again around Hormuz again. Nonetheless, any future peace plan will likely model this agreement closely, in spirit if not in minute detail. If the agreement holds despite the latest round of attacks, it proves America had to purchase de-escalation by surrendering regional leverage. If the agreement fails, it proves America surrendered leverage and still failed to obtain de-escalation. Either way, the strategic picture is damning.
Washington is now oscillating between two forms of failure: military coercion that cannot compel a final settlement, and diplomatic concessions that cannot secure a durable peace.
Without further ado, let’s dive into the stories shaping the week that was…